Turkish Authorities Prepare for Potential Mass Immigration from Iran
- Cemre Sanlav
- Jun 24
- 3 min read

The conflict that arose on June 13 between Iran and Israel has created a potential risk of a new migration wave to Türkiye. The country’s defense forces are on alert against the situation. Turkish National Defense Minister Yaşar Güler said on June 18, “Due to recent events in Iran, security measures at our borders have been heightened.” Güler made this statement after conducting inspections and reviews along the Turkish-Iranian border in Van province, accompanied by the Chief of General Staff, General Metin Gürak, and senior commanders.
Although the Migration Authority also told the Anadolu Agency Teyit Hattı that “the claim that a migration wave from Iran to Türkiye has started is absolutely not true,” 90 million people are facing forced regime change on top of what looks like continual bombing. American involvement is increasingly likely, according to the betting markets and the intensity of certain words exchanged between President Trump and Iranian politicians. Like previous U.S. military interventions, there is practically no public debate about the second- or third-order effects of war with Iran. One of the consequences of such a war could be the largest refugee crisis since World War II if the Iranian government collapses and a protracted military conflict or civil war ensues. The Syrian civil war produced a refugee crisis that was a humanitarian, economic, social, and political disaster. That civil war started in March 2011, and by the end of the war, Türkiye was the country that hosted the highest number of Syrian refugees, amounting to 3.1 million, according to the Refugees and Asylum Seekers Assistance and Solidarity Association.
Syria’s descent into civil war caused massive effects on the Turkish political ecosystem. A governmental collapse and protracted conflict in Iran could send a larger, more destructive, and more destabilizing refugee flow to neighboring Türkiye. Iran’s current population is over 92 million — four times the size of Syria, which had a population of just 23 million. Almost 80 percent of Iran’s population lives in cities, and nine of the ten largest cities are in the western part of the country. Iran’s population is far more urban than Syria’s at the start of its conflict, and the collapse of public services in cities can produce more dire circumstances more quickly than in the countryside — which will result in refugees traveling to relatively safe western neighbors like Türkiye.
In 2021, the European Union (EU) and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) inaugurated a project worth 18.6 million euros to clear 83,000 landmines on Türkiye’s eastern border by January 2023. The clearance of 80,000 anti-personnel mines on Türkiye’s easternmost border with Iran has begun. This has made border control difficult in the event of a possible migration movement.
According to BBC Persian, there may be two main reasons why Iranians are not currently flocking to the border despite the visa liberalization with Türkiye which is explained as Iranians do not believe that the ongoing attacks on each other are the beginning of a war. Many still think that the situation will stabilize in a few days.
İGAM President Metin Çorabatır believes that such a migration could develop in two different scenarios: “The escalation of the crisis and the bombing of cities and civilian areas could lead to population movements.
In addition, if the Iranian regime turns inward and increases pressure after a ceasefire or a peace process begins, there could be crossings into Türkiye. “But will this happen in masses? Of course, this will be determined by developments in Iran.” Çorabatır, who worked as the Foreign Affairs Officer of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees for many years, also reminds that Türkiye is at the top of the list of countries where Iranians can exit.
Prof. Dr. Aysan also adds that in such a case, the migrants may not be limited to Iranians: “We should not only think of Iranians. Iran hosts a significant number of Afghan and Pakistani migrants. The irregularities, troubles, and conflicts in Iran may naturally cause this group to put pressure on Türkiye.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "has long since surpassed Hitler in the crime of genocide," says President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. For now, the situation remains precariously balanced and uncertain. No mass movement of people has yet begun, but Turkish authorities continue to prepare for all possibilities.
Edited by: Ömer Gökçe