Iran-Israel Conflict Halts After US Intervention

Iran-Israel Conflict Halts After US Intervention

After the US airstrikes on subterranean Iranian nuclear research centers in Natanz, Fordow, and Arak, tensions against Israel slackened. The 13-day clash period has been halted with the iron fist of the United States, menacing both sides to halt their operations. While both sides carried out airstrikes against civil and military settlements, no major operations have been reported other than the symbolic attacks of Iran against the American bases in Qatar after Iran’s press conference. The de-escalation of the missile dispute eased the fears of a broader conflict, including a world war. Despite the declaration of a fragile ceasefire, the primary Middle East actors, including Türkiye, remain on alert against any unprecedented actions from others.

Israel Ignites the Flare of the Conflict

The conflict erupted on June 13th with the Israeli airstrikes over the IRGC command centers, with the employment of 200 planes and more than 330 ammunition. The missiles struck uranium enrichment facilities in Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Arak. Serious damage to the air defense system in Hamadan and Tehran was made; ammunition warehouses in Kermanshah and Tabriz were bombed. Against the possibility of any reciprocal bombardments, Mossad sabotaged Iranian air defense systems. Through pinpointing the locations of missiles, Israeli forces also prepared drone attacks to deactivate the ability to respond.

Apart from buildings, veteran nuclear engineers, the leader of the IRGC, Hossein Salami, and the chief commander, Gholam Ali Rashid, were killed. Apart from this, the missiles also targeted civil settlements, killing up to 935 people according to the declarations of the Iranian Justice Ministry on the first day of attacks.

Following the unexpected attacks, Iran regrouped and launched Operation True Promise 3 on June 14th. The great majority of the attacks were successfully repulsed by Israel’s mobile defense system, the Iron Dome. The remaining struck a few buildings and killed 4 people, according to the press reports. The second wave of the Iranian operation was initiated on late June 14th, killing an additional 2 civilians on that day and wounding more than 60 people. Many hospitals and residential settlements were shot at. Syrian airfields were closed against any hazardous operations and to minimize the risks of being affected.

Erdoğan Warns of Broader Regional War

President Erdoğan addressed the public for the first time that day, suggesting the risk of the war in the region escalating to a greater extent soon. Erdoğan urged the world to stay calm. He directly messaged Iran and Israel and said, "Both sides must refrain from taking steps that would cause wider conflagration." He expressed in his message that he was deeply troubled by the rise in civilian casualties and that the humanitarian aspect of the war should not be ignored.

The feverish shelling commenced on June 16th with the third wave bombardment targeting major cities in Israel like Tel Aviv, Haifa, Bnei Brak, and Petah Tikva. That night, the skies over Israel witnessed the collision of hundreds of missiles. The flares could even be seen from Mersin and Antalya shores, displaying the gravity of the situation. An armed battle between Hezbollah Forces and Israeli soldiers erupted on the Lebanon border, and the UN General Secretary urged an “immediate ceasefire” for both sides to halt further deepening of the conflict. Official authorities have reported the deaths of 5 and the injuries of 90 people.

Meanwhile, Turkish authorities extended the measures they had already taken. Border corps in Hatay and Gaziantep were ordered to be on vigilance level, where the border authority closed the doors against any mass flow of immigration from Iran. The National Defense Ministry placed its short-range missiles throughout the southeastern border of the country to repel any attacks.

Closure of Hormuz Strait Opens a New Page

On June 17th, Iran took another radical step by declaring the closure of the Hormuz Strait to complicate energy matters for the Western Bloc. Petroleum prices rose by over 25% worldwide, which resulted in the US Department of Foreign Affairs threatening Iran with “economic sanctions”. The blockade of Hormuz verdict instantly demonstrated its effect in Türkiye, where gas prices increased by 2 liras countrywide. The Ministry of Energy set up a crisis desk and ordered the conservation of natural gas reserves against price fluctuations.

Erdoğan’s statements about the conflict tensed relations with Israel and deviated from the equilibrium policy. During an AK Party group meeting, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated that Israeli attacks were state terrorism, and went on to say the Government of Benjamin Netanyahu has genocidal merits exceeding those of Hitler, and urged the world to prevent the offensive at every step. Netanyahu dismissed the remarks with the response that security for Israel is not something that can be negotiated and that his administration has every intention of taking action to protect Israeli lives.

Trump Declares Victory, Iran Vows Restraint

The US bombing, conducted from June 18th to 20th, played a crucial role in leading Iran to consider a ceasefire. The American B-2s and cruise missiles targeted underground nuclear research centers and other Revolutionary Guard centers at Natanz, Fordow, and Arak. The US administration labeled the operation a "limited but crippling" package of bombing to diminish Iranian capabilities short of actually launching a regional war. Pentagon officials later said the bombing incapacitated key infrastructure and cut lines of command, speeding Tehran's agreement to come back to the bargaining table.

The United Nations brokered a narrow window for a ceasefire on June 21-22, which returned both sides to the negotiation table. President Erdoğan did pursue further urgency with negotiations with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg and President of the European Council, Michel, where he reasserted Türkiye's willingness to mediate for peace. At the same time, Israeli and Iranian officials began to negotiate indirectly via intermediaries. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz partly reassured markets, at least for the time being, and threats continued to emanate from both sides. Iranian officials stated that all options were still on the table, and Israel stated that it had achieved their goals.

On June 25th, with the declaration of the Israeli Defense Ministry, all operations ended, and President Trump stated that a clear warning had been sent to Tehran. Netanyahu indicated that there are no plans for new strikes, and Khamenei declared that Iran would hold fire unless provoked. In Brussels, Erdoğan pressed that this ceasefire should develop into a lasting peace. Though the missile sounds stopped, the tensions in the region remain at the highest level, and countries continue to remain at a high risk level against any recurring events.

Edited by: Leyla Hacıoğlu