Germany’s New Coalition Government Between the CDU/CSU and SPD

On April 9, German Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz unveiled the coalition agreement between his party, the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD). According to the CDU, the coalition’s main goals include taking on international responsibility, strengthening the economy, and controlling and regulating migration. The coalition agreement is expected to be approved by both parties toward the end of April, followed by an anticipated Chancellor election on May 6. The SPD has called upon its members to vote in favor of the coalition until April 29.

Who is Friedrich Merz, Reuters

Road to Early Elections

Germany had been governed by the so-called Traffic Light Coalition (Ampelkoalition) between the SPD, FDP (Free Democratic Party), and the Greens (Die Grünen) from 2021 to the end of 2024. The coalition broke on November 6, 2024, following the dismissal of Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) by Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD). Subsequently, Scholz submitted his motion for a vote of confidence in the Bundestag and on December 16, the vote was lost. The Federal President ordered the dissolution of the 20th German Bundestag on December 27 and early elections were scheduled for February 23, 2025.

Election Results

According to the official results, the participation rate for the February 23 election was 82.5%, higher than the 76.4% in 2021. The CDU came out victorious, attaining 22.6% of the votes, a 3.6% increase compared to the previous elections. The party-leader Merz, thus became the likely candidate for Chancellor. The rising extreme-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) climbed to second place, gaining one out of every five votes (20.8%), doubling their vote share from 2021. The SPD experienced the most significant loss, going from its position of the primary party in 2021 with 25.7% of votes to 16.4%. This decrease in support is likely due to the criticisms of Olaf Scholz’s performance as Chancellor. The Greens made it to the Bundestag with 11.6% and the Left (Die Linke) followed them with  8.8%. The Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU) – the CDU’s Bavarian sister party – accumulated 6.6%. The FDP – formerly part of the Ampelkoalition government – did not reach the electoral threshold of 5%, only gaining 4.3% of the vote. The newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) brushed the threshold at 4.981%, but failed to enter the Bundestag.

International reaction

The German election drew a wide range of international reactions. While countries like France, the UK and Ukraine congratulated Merz and the CDU’s victory, US President Donald Trump took to Truth Social, saying “This is a great day for Germany,” highlighting issues such as immigration and energy. These issues feature prominently in the AfD’s party program with harsh measures on immigration and a desire to return to nuclear energy. The Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán also congratulated the AfD and their party leader Alice Weidel. The Deputy Prime Minister of Italy Matteo Salvini praised the AfD, calling for “stop illegal immigration and Islamic fanaticism”.

Coalition debates

In the aftermath of the elections, coalition debates started. Possible coalitions included a Black and Red (CDU/CSU-SPD), Black and Blue (CDU/CSU-AfD), and the "Kenya” coalition (CDU/CSU-SPD-Greens). A black and blue coalition between the center-right Union and the far-right AfD was considered impossible, since the other parties agreed to maintain a “firewall against the far-right” (Brandmauer). The exclusion of the AfD, which is now the second-biggest party in Germany and has widespread support, especially in the East, has sparked debates on whether the CDU/CSU’s stance is truly democratic. The political firewall has yet to crumble as the recently announced coalition agreement between the CDU/CSU and SPD puts an end to the discussion, and triggered new political debates. Disagreements have already arisen between the coalition partners, notably on tax relief for low and middle earners; while Merz stressed that the commitment is budget-dependent, the SPD co-leader Esken said the tax cut was a clear agreement. The SPD is divided ahead of the vote, as its youth wing stands against the strict immigration measures that are included in the coalition agreement.

What issues await the new government?

The German elections took place in the context of an increasingly radicalizing Europe with the rise of Eurosceptic leaders like Viktor Orbán in Hungary, Matteo Salvini in Italy, and Marine Le Pen in France. Le Pen had been the likely candidate for the 2027 presidential elections before the decision on her political ban. The AfD, like most right-wing populist parties, is advocating for stronger border control measures and tougher asylum policies. It also opposes the sanctions against Russia and is opposed to the Euro and anti-EU. The new government thus needs to face the increasing support for the AfD, which many deem undemocratic. It will also need to respond to international challenges, with Russia’s war of aggression on Ukraine ongoing and the uncertainty of the second Trump administration’s tariffs. Merz has already initiated plans to increase Germany’s defense spending, with the Bundestag voting in favor of the creation of a €500bn infrastructure fund on March 18, mostly to be used on defense spending. He also promised Kyiv the delivery of “Taurus” cruise missiles, amid intensifying Russian aggression. On the issue of the economy, Merz stressed that there is no quick fix and described the tariffs as the “great unknown” for the German economy.

Edited by: Derya Selin Yener, Yağmur Ece Nisanoğlu