Could Türkiye Be Next? The Israeli-Iranian War
- Dilay Kuyucak
- Jun 23
- 4 min read
How did the conflict start?
On Friday, June 13, Israel launched a series of strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, marking the beginning of a direct military confrontation between the two states. The operation was reportedly triggered by intelligence suggesting that Iran had resumed activities within its so-called “weapons group,” indicating renewed efforts to develop a nuclear warhead. The decision followed Israel’s earlier success in October 2024, when it destroyed a major segment of Tehran’s strategic air defense system. Despite these efforts, analysts widely acknowledge that Israel’s capacity to dismantle Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is limited without U.S. military involvement. As reported by Al Jazeera, the stated aim of the June 13 strikes was not complete destruction, but rather to significantly delay Iran’s nuclear progress. However, counter-strikes by Iran soon followed, escalating the conflict. According to the Iranian Ministry of Health, 224 people have been killed and 200 injured. On the Israeli side, 24 fatalities have been reported.
Do the attacks on nuclear facilities pose danger for surrounding countries like Türkiye?
On Tuesday, June 17, World Health Organization (WHO) Chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus expressed his concern over “the targeting of nuclear sites, which may have immediate and long-term impacts on the environment and health of people in Iran and across the region.” The strikes were carried out on nuclear facilities in Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, which use centrifuges to enrich uranium gas used as fuel to power civilian nuclear reactors. International Atomic Energy Agency’s director general Rafael Mariano Grossi added that there is both “radiological and chemical contamination” inside the Natanz facility. However, it also noted that “at present, the competent Iranian authorities have confirmed that there are no elevated radiation levels” surrounding the site. So far, no live nuclear reactor has been targeted by Israel, which would raise the risk of regional radiation contamination.
Future attacks might impact the Fordow fuel enrichment site, which is buried underground, necessitating the American bunker-busters. In such a case, though the risk of immediate contamination is low, according to Simon Bennett, who leads the civil safety and security unit at the University of Leicester, the radiation could leach into groundwater over time, depending on the impact and the following contamination efforts put in motion by Iranian authorities. The night of June 22, the US has entered the war and bombed three nuclear facilities in Iran. Trump thanked Netanyahu for their collaboration, saying all nuclear facilities were now destroyed. Six bunker-busters were used on Fordow and NASA detected powerful heat radiation following the bombing, however, the IAEA has stated that there is no increase in radiation around the facility. Trump wrote on Truth Social “Any retaliatory measures by Iran against the United States of America will be met with force far exceeding that demonstrated tonight.” Iran striked Israel following the attack. It also will be pursuing legal action against the US, qualifying the attack as against international law.
What about Türkiye’s involvement?
Aside from being geographically vulnerable to potential nuclear contamination, Türkiye is also in a critical diplomatic position both because of its membership in NATO and its support of Palestine and, more recently, Iran. While President Erdoğan had stated on June 18 that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had “long since surpassed Hitler in the crime of genocide” and that it was “entirely natural, legitimate, and lawful for Iran to defend itself,” the question of Türkiye’s indirect support for Israel is widely debated. Primarily, the Kürecik Radar Station is once again on the opposition’s agenda. Murat Emir, Deputy Parliamentary Group Chair of the CHP, has criticized Erdoğan, saying, “I ask once again to Erdoğan, who has said in the assembly that Israel would attack Türkiye: Why haven’t you already shut down Malatya Kürecik Radar Station, which is integrated into the USA and Israel’s systems and is known to provide intelligence?” In response, the Center for Combatting Disinformation denied these allegations, saying information is only shared with NATO member states. Criticism has also been directed at the partnership between Baykar and Italian aerospace giant Leonardo. BirGün reported that Leonardo was protested in Italy for supplying military equipment to Israel. Baykar emphasized that the collaboration is intended to deepen European defense cooperation, not to support Israeli operations.
The conflict followed a series of newer developments in the Middle East, including the regime change in Syria. The speculation that Türkiye could be the future target is imminent, but the facts display that it is unlikely. Türkiye is a NATO member and benefits from the principle of collective defense granted by Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, which stipulates that **“an armed attack against one or more of [the member states] in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all.” While direct military conflict is unlikely, the war may also hinder the newly developed internal peace efforts with the PKK, which had announced its dissolution earlier this year. Former HDP Co-Chairman Demirtaş has warned that the “disarmament should be completed without leaving room for provocation”.
Edited by: Ömer Gökçe
